Methodology

The Buyer Advantage Score

Version 0.1 · public-signal model · last updated July 23, 2026

The Buyer Advantage Score is one number for the whole Central Texas new-home market, a read of how much leverage buyers hold right now. This page shows exactly how it's calculated, so the number can be reproduced and checked. It is a transparent read, not a prediction or financial advice.

What v0.1 is, and isn't. This is a public-signal model: it uses only data we capture from builders' own websites four times a day. It does not yet include MLS market data (inventory, days-on-market, absorption), and its baselines are calibrated from editorial judgment pending back-testing against retained history. Treat it as an informed, reproducible index, not a precision instrument. The version number will advance as the model is back-tested and the MLS layer is added.

The five components

Each component is scored 0 to 100 from a stated input and formula, then weighted. Higher component score = stronger buyer leverage.

Component	Weight	Formula (v0.1)	Today's input	Sub-score
Incentive level how big the median advertised credit is	30%	clamp((median − $5k) ÷ $20k × 100)	median $20,000	75
Competition breadth how many builders are actively offering	20%	clamp(builders ÷ 25 × 100)	23 builders live	92
Offer-validity friction share of displayed offers already expired	15%	clamp(expired ÷ displayed × 300)	14 of 49 (28.6%)	86
Lender-string factor share of offers with no lender requirement	20%	string-free share × 100	1 in 3 (33%)	33
Deadline pressure dated offers expiring within 14 days	15%	clamp(count ÷ 12 × 100)	11 deadlines	92

Worked example, why today equals 74

Incentive level   0.30 × 75 = 22.5
Competition      0.20 × 92 = 18.4
Validity friction 0.15 × 86 = 12.9
Lender-string    0.20 × 33 = 6.6
Deadline pressure 0.15 × 92 = 13.8
─────────────────────────
Buyer Advantage Score = 74.2 → 74

The lender-string factor (33) is what holds the score down: incentives are large and widespread, but two-thirds of them require the builder's own lender, so the full value only reaches a buyer who protects it. That single tension is the story the number tells this morning.

The bands

0 to 39Favors builders

40 to 59Balanced

60 to 79 · todayFavors buyers (High)

80 to 100Strongly favors buyers

Because v0.1's precision is limited, read the band first and the exact number second. A move from 74 to 76 is noise; a move from "Favors buyers" to "Balanced" is signal.

Limitations (read these)

Editorial baselines. The formulas' anchor points ($5k, $25k incentive range, 25-builder saturation, etc.) are v0.1 judgment calls, not yet back-tested against outcomes.
No history yet. We are storing every sweep's inputs and output starting now. Until enough history exists, we do not publish "change vs. prior sweep" or any predictive claim.
Offer-validity friction is interpretive. An expired offer left on a builder's site proves the page is out of date, not, on its own, that the builder is motivated. It's a weak signal, weighted low, and flagged for review.
Pre-MLS. The score does not yet include inventory, days-on-market, absorption, or concession data. Those are designed and will be added only after MLS authorization.
Advertised, not verified. Inputs are builder-advertised figures captured from builders' own sites, not field-verified sale outcomes.

What the score does not mean

It is not a prediction that prices or rates will move.
It is not financial, mortgage, or investment advice.
It is not a statement about any individual home, community, or builder, those are the separate Builder Opportunity Rankings.
A high score does not mean "buy now." It means buyers, as a group, have more room to negotiate than usual.

The Builder Opportunity Score

A separate score from the market index, one per builder, answering "who, specifically, is most motivated?" Same discipline: reproducible from stated public signals, v0.1, pre-MLS.

Component	Weight	Formula (v0.1)
Credit size, largest advertised credit	40%	clamp(credit ÷ $50k × 100)
Deadline pressure	25%	≤3d = 100 · ≤7d = 85 · ≤14d = 70 · ≤30d = 55 · none = 30
Today's movement	20%	new/raised = 100 · large confirmed = 70 · stable = 50
String-free, no lender requirement	15%	no-lender = 100 · lender-tied = 40

Worked example, David Weekley = 74:

Credit $50k   0.40 × 100 = 40.0
Deadline Jul 31 0.25 × 70 = 17.5
Movement     0.20 × 50 = 10.0
Lender-tied   0.15 × 40 = 6.0
─────────────────────────
Builder Opportunity Score = 73.5 → 74

Same caveats as the market score apply: editorial baselines pending back-test, no history yet (so trend arrows reflect only today's observed movement, not a stored series), and it does not include MLS inventory/DOM data. Read it as "who has the most room at the table today," not an endorsement of any builder.

Change log

Version	Date	Change
v0.1	2026-07-23	Initial public-signal market model (5 components) + Builder Opportunity Score (4 components). Baselines editorial, pending back-test. Score-history capture begins.

New Home Dispatch is an independent consumer-education and housing-intelligence platform. The Buyer Advantage Score is a transparent editorial index built from builder-advertised data; it is not a prediction or financial advice. Questions or a correction? Return to the Terminal.